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Forum:2011 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/Atu
Tropical Cyclone Atu Wow. The SHem is losing it's mind faster than I thought; Although the SWIO is pretty much deadened up, the SPac and Australian Regions are going downright donkers, and have been for the last month. Anyways, this one formed over New Caledonia 2 days ago and is heading north, so it could bear watching for the time being, but it currently isn't past TD intensity... Ryan1000 22:21, February 17, 2011 (UTC) :Now it's been named. It's name is Atu, and it's forecast to move into the southern Solomon Islands as a cat 1 before becoming a 2 while heading out to sea. Ryan1000 13:09, February 19, 2011 (UTC) Now forecasted to become a category 3! Currently category 2. Yqt1001 14:12, February 20, 2011 (UTC) :Well, it's a 3 now, but, to tell the truth, it looks like sh!t on the sattelites... I would say only a category 4 like Wilma at the most, but if it stays as it is, it will not be surprising either, as it really doesn't look like anything, and it will be heading toward New Zeland again, but probrably just as an extratropical storm at that time. The South Pacific is onto one of their most active seasons in recent years, but i'm not surprised, given the forecasts from NIWA earlier this year, a 9-12 storm season. Pretty bad one thus far with Yasi, but could it get worse come March and April? Ryan1000 15:01, February 20, 2011 (UTC) Category 4 now! Not surprising, area of low shear with warm water. And Ryan, I could see the South Pacific getting a lot worse...Now if only the other regions would have this kind of activity. Yqt1001 20:42, February 20, 2011 (UTC) :Back down to 3. Yqt1001 21:00, February 21, 2011 (UTC) :The incredible activity in this year's South Pacific season is getting me to think that we will have a switch in the tropics soon... The SPac hasn't been this active in years. It doesn't usually become this active outside of the PMO(Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation), except in a few seasons like 1997-98, or in 2004-05. This isn't exactly signaling the end of the AMO, but it may very well be a sign of it in the next decade to come. Atu lost her mind a bit, but the ERC she's undergoing right now will hinder her progress; however, unlike Bianca and Wilma, she'll try to stay a 3 or 4 for at least two days before dying out. Could be interesting to watch her for the time being. Ryan1000 21:12, February 21, 2011 (UTC) ::Or stay at a category 2....buut, Atu is looking the most developed I've seen, even more so then when she was a category 4. Yqt1001 13:35, February 22, 2011 (UTC) :::Well, I said I wouldn't be surprised if it held on for a long time as a cat. 3 or so, due to it's organization. New Zeland probrably won't be hit so hard from this one, but if the country is even affected, I wouldn't expect more than a mudslide or two and some light showers. Ryan1000 21:41, February 22, 2011 (UTC)